Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment could rise 2.7%. But Medicare Part B premiums are set to rise even more, eating most of the COLA.

Regardless of which of these is right, however, the COLA is about to buck a 29-year trend. That's because, for the first time since 1996, the COLA is going to be above 2.5% for five consecutive years. This is a once-in-a-generation shift for today's retirees, and it is not something that most people will probably see again in their lifetime.

Rising inflation and tariffs are pushing up 2026 Social Security COLA projections, but potential Medicare hikes and policy shifts could still strain low-income seniors.